I was visiting with a couple preparing for their marriage and the groom said this to me: “Well, according to the statistics our marriage has a 50-50 chance of making it.”
What a way to begin a marriage! Feeling half defeated before you even start.
Now the truth is, with this particular couple for various reasons, their chances of marital success may be less than 50%. But it also is true that their chance of success could be much greater than that.
But like everyone else they’ve heard that the divorce rate in America is 50%
so they assume it’s true for their marriage.
I had a lady make this statement to me recently. She said she had just recently had her first wedding. Maybe she didn’t mean anything by that, but why not just say “I had my wedding.” First wedding implies that she expects it won’t be her last.
What is the rate of divorce in America really?
Here’s a bit of good news.
While the common figure to throw around still in the year 2011 is that half of marriages end in divorce, that might not be so accurate. The 50% figure is based on some complex calculations – but no one knows for sure.
We do know that the divorce rate is now down from what it was in the 80’s.
The 2001 State of Our Unions Report says that marriages formed then have a 41 to 43 percent chance of ending in divorce. That’s still high, but don’t make it worse than it is. The 41-43% doesn’t tell the whole story anyway. There are repeat offenders!
And other factors play an important role as well.
If we want to talk about statistics we need to understand
that there are certain kinds of marriages
that tend to succeed and certain kinds that tend to fail.
By understanding those factors we can make better choices and preparation for marriage in a way that helps ensure it’s success. It can simply be misleading to throw a number out there and say 50% of all marriages will fail.
Let’s Not Create Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
Part of the problem with saying that half of all marriages fail is the effect it has on people’s perception, which in turn affects their actions. That is, it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy.
Joshua R. Goldstein, associate professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton’s Office of Population Research said that one explanation for rising divorce rates in the 1970’s is the reporting of high divorce rates at the time. As people’s perception was distorted, it became self-fulfilling prophecy.
On the other hand, as people hear that divorce rate is declining, he says, “it could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy in the other direction.”
If you believe half of marriages fail, you might decide not to risk it.
Marriage is not a 50-50 shot in the dark.
In fact, by knowing a few things and doing a few things, a couple can dramatically increase their odds of marital success. That is, both a long marriage and a happy one.
Good marriage preparation is going to help a couple discover those things that will put the odds in their favor.
Go ahead and give me some feedback. What do you think?
Why do you think the divorce rate is as high as it is?
Do you agree that all the talk about a high divorce rate becomes self-fulfilling prophecy?
Do you agree that just saying the divorce rate is 50% without explaining the kinds of marriages that fail can be misleading?
